November 2024 NAR Housing Data and Analysis for Arizona
Arizona's real estate market in November 2024 reflects a steady and balanced environment, shaped by moderate price growth, seasonal trends, and broader economic influences, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Scroll for analysis.
Listing Volume
In November 2024, the number of active listings in the greater Arizona market experienced a minimal month-over-month decline of just 0.17%. This slight dip suggests normal market fluctuations rather than a meaningful shift in inventory levels.
Seasonal Variations: These changes are common in seasonal transitions. A 0.17% change is well within the range of normal monthly activity.
Year-over-Year Perspective: Compared to the same time last year, Arizona’s housing inventory has grown significantly—up 26.2%—with 36,992 homes currently on the market. This substantial increase highlights a longer-term trend of greater inventory availability.
Normal Market Dynamics: Month-to-month changes in inventory reflect routine market movements as listings are added, sold, or withdrawn.
Longer-Term Trends: The real story lies in broader trends. The year-over-year inventory increase, along with homes spending a median of 56 days on the market (up 13 days from last year), points to a market transitioning toward balance.
Buyer Advantage Indicators: With only 15% of homes selling at or above their list price—a decrease from last year—there is less competition among buyers.
A 0.17% month-over-month decline in listings is negligible and does not signal a significant trend. Instead, the focus should be on broader indicators, such as the year-over-year inventory growth and extended market times, which suggest a cooling but still relatively stable real estate market in Arizona.
Sales Volume
In October 2024, there were 6,576 home sales in Arizona—a significant 14% decrease from the previous month. This decline in sales reflects both seasonal trends and broader market dynamics that are influencing buyer and seller behavior.
SEASONAL FACTORS
Winter Slowdown: Arizona’s housing market often cools as winter approaches. Many homeowners choose to delay listing their homes during the holiday season, resulting in reduced inventory.
Fall Transition: Fall is typically a quieter period, as the market winds down from the busy spring and summer months, creating fewer opportunities for transactions.
OTHER INFLUENCING FACTORS
Higher Interest Rates: Mortgage rates are still above 6% in the final quarter of 2024, making homes less affordable for many buyers and discouraging new purchases.
Affordability Challenges: Although home prices have grown modestly (up 2.3% YoY), even this slower price growth may be pushing some buyers out of the market.
Extended Time on Market: Homes are now spending an average of 56 days on the market—13 days longer than this time last year—giving buyers more time to evaluate options and negotiate terms.
MARKET DYNAMICS
Sale-to-List Price Ratio: At 98.9%, homes sell very close to their list prices, reflecting a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage.
Decreased Competition: Only 15% of homes sold at or above their list price, down from last year. This indicates fewer bidding wars and more favorable conditions for buyers.
OUTLOOK
Stabilization Ahead: Experts expect housing prices to level off as inventory grows and economic conditions evolve, especially in high-demand regions.
Ongoing Interest Rate Pressure: With mortgage rates projected to stay above 6%, affordability will remain a key factor in buyer decision-making.
Arizona’s real estate market is balancing out, offering potential opportunities for buyers with less competition and more room for negotiation. However, buyers and sellers should remain mindful of regional differences and economic shifts when planning their next moves.
Median Sales Price
The median home sale price in Arizona for November is $444,000. This represents a modest 2.2-point increase from October and a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 2.3%. While the month-over-month change is slight, the YoY increase reflects a stable yet evolving market.
Moderate Appreciation: A 2.3% YoY increase is consistent with a balanced real estate market, indicating steady appreciation without the volatility of past years.
Comparison to Trends: While this is slower than the rapid increases seen in previous years, it signals a shift toward a more sustainable growth pattern. For context, recent data from Zillow shows a statewide average of 4.3% annual growth in past periods.
Regional Differences: Some areas of Arizona, such as Show Low, experienced significant growth (17.9%), while others have seen more moderate changes or even small declines, highlighting the importance of local market dynamics.
Balancing the Market: This moderate growth suggests a transition toward a more balanced market, moving away from the strong seller’s market of recent years.
Economic Influences: Higher mortgage rates may be tempering demand and contributing to this slower price growth, as buyers adjust to affordability challenges.
Healthy Outlook: Despite the slower growth compared to previous years, a 2.3% increase is a sign of continued demand and a positive long-term trajectory for Arizona’s housing market.
Overall, the slight rise in the median home price reflects a market adapting to economic changes while maintaining stability. This kind of growth points to a healthier, more sustainable future for Arizona’s real estate landscape.
Inventory
Arizona’s real estate market currently has 4.82 months of inventory, a level that is well within the balanced range of 3-6 months considered ideal for a healthy housing market. This balance offers valuable insights into the state of supply and demand in the market.
KEY INSIGHTS
Month-over-Month Stability: The 1% decrease in inventory from October (4.87 months) to November is relatively insignificant, reflecting normal market fluctuations and short-term stability in housing supply.
Year-over-Year Growth: Inventory has increased by 26.2% compared to last year, a significant shift that highlights broader market trends. This growth points to a transition away from the tight seller’s market of previous years, offering more options for buyers while maintaining a balanced environment.
OBSERVATIONS
Market Balance: With 4.82 months of inventory, Arizona’s market strikes a healthy balance between supply and demand, avoiding the extremes of either a buyer’s or seller’s market.
Additional factors
Politics: The conclusion of the 2024 elections has reduced some political uncertainty, allowing buyers and investors to make more informed decisions.
Local Economy: Arizona's robust job market and steady population growth, particularly in urban hubs like Phoenix, continue to bolster housing demand.
Corporate Investors: Portfolio investors remain a significant presence, especially in high-demand areas, influencing affordability and availability.
In Conclusion
Arizona's real estate market in November 2024 reflects a period of balance and stability, marked by steady price growth, moderate sales activity, and healthy inventory levels. Seasonal trends, economic factors, and the resolution of political uncertainties are shaping a market that offers opportunities for both buyers and sellers. As the market adapts to evolving dynamics, Arizona remains a resilient and promising environment for real estate.